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School of Botany
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School of Botany
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Dr Fiona Fidler
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| Location |
Natural Philosophy Building |
| Phone | +61 3 8344 3336 |
| Fax | +61 3 9348 1620 |
| fidlerfm@ unimelb.edu.au |
I have two main research interests – statistical cognition and eliciting expert judgement.
Our projects in statistical cognition involve identifying
typical misconceptions about statistical concepts and developing
graphical displays and language for improved statistical
communication. These projects are strongly connected to the
statistical reform of ecology, psychology and other disciplines (by
statistical reform we mean the move away from over-reliance
on statistical significance testing, dichotomous decisions made on the
basis of p values to effect size estimation,
confidence intervals, Bayesian techniques and other methods).
My PhD thesis was about resistance to statistical reform in psychology,
medicine and ecology. A pdf is available here:
On statistical cognition projects I have worked primarily with
these people:
Prof.
Mark Burgman, School of Botany, University of Melbourne
Prof.
Geoff Cumming, School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University
Dr.
Neil Thomason, Department of Philosophy,
University of Melbourne
Dr. Sue Finch,
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne
Overconfidence in interval judgments is a common phenomenon. In experts the phenomenon is even more pronounced: their estimates are systematically too narrow. For example, when asked to guess a 90% interval for some value, experts usually provide bounds that correspond with 50% intervals. In other words, they severely underestimate their own uncertainty. My research looks for ways of eliciting interval judgments that have less systematic narrowing, and so provide estimates that more accurately characterise uncertainty. This research forms part of a broader project called 'eliciting expert opinion'. The expert elicitation project is an Australian Centre for Excellence in Risk Analysis (ACERA) project, beginning January 2007. Others working on this broader project include: Mark Burgman, Terry Walshe, Marrisa McBride and Bonnie Wintle.
Lai, J., Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. (in review). Subjective p intervals: Researchers underestimate the variability of p values over replication.
Speirs-Bridge, A., Fidler, F., McBride, M., Flander, L., Cumming, G. and Burgman, M. (in review). Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgements of experts. Risk Analysis.
Fidler, F. & Loftus, G. (in press, invited). Why figures with error bars should replace p values:
Some conceptual arguments and empirical demonstrations. Zeitschrift fuer Psychologie / Journal of Psychology.
Cumming, G. & Fidler, F. (in press, invited). Confidence Intervals: Better Answers to Better Questions. Zeitschrift fuer Psychologie / Journal of Psychology.
Beyth-Marom, R., Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. (2008). Statistical Cognition: Towards Evidence-Based Practice in Statistics and Statistics Education. Statistics Education Research Journal.
Kalinowski, P., Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. (2008). Overcoming the inverse probability fallacy: A comparison of two teaching interventions. Methodology, 4, 152-158.
Faulkner, C., Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. (2008). The Value of RCT Evidence Depends on the Quality of Statistical Analysis. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 46, 270-281.
Walshe, T., Wintle, B., Fidler, F. & Burgman, M. (2007). Use of confidence intervals to demonstrate performance against forest management standards. Forest Ecology and Management, 247, 237-245.
Wintle, B., Burgman, M. & Fidler, F. (2007). How fast should nanotechnology advance? Nature Nanotechnology, 2, 327.
Cumming, G., Fidler, F., & Vaux, D. L. (2007). Error bars in experimental biology. Journal of Cell Biology, 177, 7-11. [Feature article] [Reprinted in Journal of Experimental Medicine, April 2007, 204, i11.]
Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. (2007). Lessons learned from statistical reform efforts in other disciplines. Special Issue: Statistical reform in school psychology (Thomas J. Kehle and Melissa A. Bray, Eds.) Psychology in the Schools, 44, 441-449.
Cumming, G., Fidler, F., Leonard, M., Kalinowski, P., Christiansen, A., Kleinig, A., Lo, J., McMenamin, N. & Wilson, S. (2007). Statistical reform in psychology: Is anything changing? Psychological Science, 18, 230-232.
Fidler, F., Burgman, M., Cumming, G. Buttrose, R. & Thomason., N. (2006). Impact of criticism of null hypothesis significance testing on statistical reporting practices in conservation biology. Conservation Biology, 20, 1539-1544.
Belia, S., Fidler, F., Williams, J. & Cumming, G. (2005). Researchers misunderstand confidence intervals and standard error bars. Psychological Methods, 10, 389-396.
Fidler, F., Thomason, N., Cumming, G., Finch, S. & Leeman, J. (2005). Still much to learn about confidence intervals. Reply to Rouder and Morey. Psychological Science, 16, 494-495.
Fidler, F., Cumming, G., Thomason, N., Pannuzzo, D., Smith, J., Fyffe, P., Edmonds, H., Harrington, C. & Schmitt, R. (2005). Toward improved statistical reporting in the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 73, 136-143.
Fidler, F., Cumming, G., Burgman, M. & Thomason, N. (2004). Statistical reform in medicine, psychology and ecology. Journal of Socio Economics, 33, 615-630.
Fidler, F., Thomason, N., Cumming, G., Finch, S. & Leeman, J. (2004). Editors can lead researchers to confidence intervals but they can't make them think: Statistical reform lessons from Medicine. Psychological Science, 15, 119-126.
Cumming, G., Williams, J., & Fidler, F. (2004). Replication, and researchers’ understanding of confidence intervals and standard error bars. Understanding Statistics, 3, 299-311.
Fidler, F. (2002). The 5th edition of the APA Publication Manual: Why its statistics recommendations are so controversial. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 62, 749-770.
Fidler, F. & Thompson, B. (2001). Computing Correct Confidence Intervals for ANOVA fixed and random effect sizes. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 61, 575-604.
Geoff Cumming's webpage has pdfs of many of our joint papers: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/psy/cumming/current_res.html
Fidler, F. (in preparation, invited). Reporting, Sharing, and Re-Analyzing Data: Lessons from the Medical Sciences. The Ethics of Quantitative Methodology: A Handbook for Researchers Taylor and Francis (Multivariate Application Book Series).
Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. (in preparation, invited).From Hypothesis Testing to Estimation. The Ethics of Quantitative Methodology: A Handbook for Researchers Taylor and Francis (Multivariate Application Book Series).
Fidler, F. (in press, invited). Statistical Significance, Result Worthiness and Evidence:
What lessons are there for giftedness education in other disciplines? In B. Thompson & R. Subotnik (Eds.). Research Methodologies for conducting research on giftedness. Washington, USA: American Psychological Association.
Cumming, G., & Fidler, F. (in press, invited). The new stats: Effect sizes and confidence intervals. In G. R. Hancock & R. O. Mueller (Eds.) Quantitative methods in the social and behavioral sciences: A guide for researchers and reviewers. Erlbaum.
Fidler, F., & Cumming, G. (2008). The new stats: Attitudes for the twenty-first century. (Ch 1) In J.W. Osborne (Ed.). Best practice in quantitative methods (pp. 1-12). Sage.
Fidler, F., Faulkner, S., & Cumming, G. (2008). Analyzing and presenting outcomes: Focus on effect size estimates and confidence intervals. In A. M. Nezu & C. M. Nezu (Eds.) Evidence-based outcome research: A practical guide to conducting randomized controlled trials for psychosocial interventions (pp. 315-334). New York: OUP.
Fidler, F. (2006). Should Psychology abandon p values and teach confidence intervals instead? Evidence-based reforms in statistics education. Working co-operatively in statistics education. Proceedings of ICOTS-7, Seventh International Conference on Teaching Statistics. Salvador, Brazil.
Cumming, G. & Fidler, F. (2005). Interval estimates for statistics communication: Problems and possible solutions. Proceedings of Statistics Education and the Communication of Statistics, International Association for Statistics Education. Sydney, Australia.
Fidler, F. (2005).Confidence Intervals in practice. Proceedings of the 55th International Statistics Institute Session. Sydney, Australia.
Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. (2005). Teaching confidence intervals: Problems and potential solutions. Proceedings of the 55th International Statistics Institute Session. Sydney, Australia.
Cumming, G., Fidler, F. and Thomason, N. (2002). The statistical re-education of psychology. In B. Phillips (Ed.) Developing a statistically literate society. Proceedings of ICOTS-6, Sixth International Conference on Teaching Statistics, 1-6. Voorburg, The Netherlands.
Cumming, G. & Fidler, F. (presenter). (2008). Evidence-based statistical reform: It’s only ethical. Paper presented in division 5 symposium: ‘Quantitative Methodology viewed through an ethical lens’ Symposium presented at the 116th Annual American Psychological Association Convention, Boston, MA, USA (August).
Fidler, F. (2008). When statistical inference is unethical. Paper presented to Australasian Association of History, Philosophy and Social Studies of Science (AAHPSSS), Melbourne (July)
Fidler, F. (2005). Is a ban necessary? Paper presented in All Academy Symposium: ‘Proposed: The Academy should ban null hypothesis testing from its journals’ (Calahoun, M., Starbuck, W., Thompson, B., Fidler, F. and Abrahamson, E.) at the 65th Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA (August).
Fidler, F. Faulkner, S. & Cumming, G. (2004). How should results be reported? ‘The New Stats, and an evidence-based approach to improving research communication in psychology’. Symposium presented to the 39th Annual Australian Psychological Society, Sydney (October).
Fidler, F., Burgman, M., Thomason, N., Cumming, G. & Buttrose, R. (2003). The Informed Regulator Rule: How Confidence Intervals can help Wildlife Management. Paper presented at International Wildlife Management Congress, Christchurch, New Zealand (December).
Fidler, F., Cumming, G., Burgman, M., Buttrose, R. & Thomason, N. (2003). Teaching a precautionary approach to statistically non-significant results in Ecology: How Confidence Intervals can help. Paper presented at OZCOTS (Australian Conference on Teaching Statistics), Melbourne (December).
Fidler, F. (2003). Why medicine had a statistical reform and psychology didn't. Paper presented to Australasian Association of History, Philosophy and Social Studies of Science (AAHPSSS), Melbourne (July)
Fidler, F., Buttrose, R., Burgman, M., Thomason, N. & Cumming, G. (2002). Statistical reporting deficiencies in conservation biology. Paper presented to the Ecological Society of Australia, Cairns (December).
Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. (2002). Confidence Intervals and the statistical re-education of psychology. Symposium presented at the 110th Annual American Psychological Association Convention, Chicago, IL, USA (August).
Fidler, F., Cumming, G., Thomason, N., Finch, S. & Leeman, J. (2001). What can medicine teach psychology about statistical reform? Paper presented at OZCOTS (Australian Conference on Teaching Statistics), Melbourne (December).
Fidler, F., Edmonds, H., Fyffe, P., Harrington, C., Pannuzzo, D., Schmitt, R., Smith, J. & Cumming, G. (2001). Editorial influence on statistical practices in the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. Paper presented at OZCOTS (Australian Conference on Teaching Statistics), Melbourne (December).
Williams, J., Fidler, F., & Cumming, G. (2001). Researchers’ interpretation of graphically-presented confidence intervals and other error bars: Implications for replication. Paper presented at OZCOTS (Australian Conference on Teaching Statistics), Melbourne (December).
Belia, S., Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. (2001) Researchers’ interpretation of the width of graphically-presented confidence intervals and other error bars. Paper presented at OZCOTS (Australian Conference on Teaching Statistics), Melbourne (December).
Fidler, F. (2001). Statistical Reform in Psychology and Medicine: A comparison of debates over statistical significance testing and changes in data reporting practices. Paper presented to Australasian Association of History, Philosophy and Social Studies of Science (AAHPSSS), Melbourne (July).
Loh, Z. and Fidler, F. (2001). Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: Can the damage be assessed? Paper presented to the Australasian Association of History, Philosophy and Social Studies of Science (AAHPSSS), Melbourne (July).
Fidler, F. & Finch, S. (2000). Students’ understanding of Confidence Intervals: Descriptive or Inferential Statistic? Paper presented at OZCOTS (Australian Conference on Teaching Statistics), Melbourne (December).
Fidler, F. (2000). Reforming Psychology: Neglected issues. Paper presented to the Australasian Association of History, Philosophy and Social Studies of Science (AAHPSSS), Sydney (July).
top of page
Lai, J., Fidler, F., & Cumming, G. (2008) Researchers under-estimate the variability of p values over replication. APA Convention, Boston, August.
Lai, J., Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. (2007). Interval Judgment where variability is real: The case of statistical replication. Poster presented to the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (JDM), Long Beach, CA, November.
Speirs-Bridge, A., Fidler, F., McBride, M., Cumming, G., Flander, L. & Burgman, M. (2007). Evaluating Experts Interval Judgments. Poster presented to the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (JDM), Long Beach, CA, November.
Wintle, B.C., Fidler, F. & Burgman, M. (2007). Scientific Objectivity: Everyone’s imaginary friend. Poster presented to the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (JDM), Long Beach, CA, November.
Fidler, F. (2006). From statistical significance to effect estimation. Poster presented to the Summer Institute on Bounded Rationality, Max Plank Institute of Human Development, Berlin, August.
Cumming, G., Coulson, M., Healey, M. & Fidler, F. Confidence interval pictures can give better inference than significance testing. Manuscript in preparation.
Faulkner, C., Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. Psychologists may prefer confidence intervals, not significance tests, for reading simple results of random controlled trials. Manuscript in Preparation.
Hamilton-Keene, R., Fidler, F. & Cumming, G. The Overlap Misconception: The misinterpretation of confidence intervals in medical research. Manuscript in preparation.
Cumming, G. and Fidler, F.
Funding: 2007-2010, $355, 852. Evidence based improvement of
statistical inference practices in psychology and other
disciplines. ARC Discovery Grant and Australian Post-doctoral
Fellowship.
Thomason,N., Barnard, K., Carey, J. and Fidler, F.
Funding 2008: $60,000. Plain English for risk communication. ACERA research grant.
I’ve taught in a few different departments, but predominantly
in
psychology.
I lectured for two years (2005 & 2006) in the School of Psychological Science at La Trobe University. My primary teaching commitment there was Practical Research Methods (Qualitative and Quantitative) in third year psychology (PSY30PY). I also contributed to teaching intro Psychological Studies (PSY11PSA & PSY11PSB).
Environmental Science
I usually participate in the teaching of Environmental Risk Assessment (606-303).
History and Philosophy of Science
During my PhD in the Department of History and Philosophy of Science at the University of Melbourne, I tutored in several different subjects including: Human Values, Social Change and New Technologies; History of Astronomy; Science, Philosophy and History; Science, Life and Mind.
Supervision
Honours
Rachael Hamilton-Keene (2008-expected completion March 2009). The ‘no overlap’ misconception of confidence intervals in medicine. School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University.
Debbie Hansen (2008). Reviewing clinical psychology: Meta-analysis versus the narrative review. School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University.
Simon Carter (2007). Understanding confidence intervals: Interval cognition and evaluation. School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University.
Andrew Speirs-Bridge (2007). The influence of elicitation format, cognitive style, and forecast period on the rates-of-disease predictions of infectious disease experts. School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University.
Pawel Kalinowski (2006). Overcoming the inverse probability fallacy: A comparison of two teaching interventions. School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University.
Masters
Andrew Speirs-Bridge (2008-expected completion 2010). Professional training and expertise in Cognitive Behavioural Therapy. School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University.
PhD
Pawel Kalinowski (2007-expected completion 2010). The cognition of confidence intervals. (Supervising with Prof Geoff Cumming). School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University.
Jerry Lai (2008-expected completion 2011). Statistical cognition of p values and confidence intervals: Implications for statistical reform in psychology. (Supervising with Prof Geoff Cumming). School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University.
Geoff Cumming's webpage has pdfs of many of our papers and other statistical reform related things, including Exploratory Software for Confidence Intervals, ESCI: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/psy/cumming/current_res.html
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Date Created: 13 December 2006 |
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